Labor to win re-election in ACT with support of Greens, ABC election analyst Antony Green says
The Canberra Liberals have conceded the election to ACT Labor, as its leader Alistair Coe calls returned Chief Minister Andrew Barr to congratulate him on the result.
The ABC’s election analyst Antony Green says ACT Labor will be returned for a sixth term with the support of the Greens.
But he says the surprise of the evening favours the Greens, as he predicts the party could win as many as five seats.
With 80 per cent of the vote counted, Labor has 38.4 per cent of the vote to 33.1 per cent of the vote going to the Canberra Liberals.
Antony Green has predicted Labor has won 12 seats, the Liberals eight and the Greens three, with two seats yet to be called.
The Canberra Liberals have seen an unexpected 3.6 per cent swing against them, while Labor’s vote share remains largely unchanged from 2016.
Green said the only way the Canberra Liberals could win enough seats to claim government was if paper vote results were significantly different to the choices of the majority of Canberrans who voted electronically.
Retiring Canberra Liberals MLA Vicki Dunne, the party’s most senior member, conceded ACT Labor appeared to have won.
“As reluctant as I am, I have to agree with Antony,” Ms Dunne said.
Labor MLAs are celebrating with caution, noting that the ACT’s Hare-Clark system can turn up last-minute surprises.
In Canberra’s southernmost electorate of Brindabella, where 80 per cent of the vote has been counted, the Canberra Liberals have faced a devastating result.
The party has seen a four per cent swing against it, while Labor enjoyed a 7.5 per cent swing.
Brindabella has long been considered a Canberra Liberals’ stronghold and the party needed to win three seats in the five-member electorate to help them win government.
The loss of the third seat would mean Liberal MLA Andrew Wall would not return to the Assembly.
Liberal MLA in Brindabella Mark Parton, who looks set to retain his seat, told the ABC the result looked disappointing.
Elsewhere, Canberra Liberal MLAs Giulia Jones and James Milligan are at risk of losing their seats based on current preference flows.
Labor MLA Bec Cody left the party function early when first results showed she would not be re-elected in Murrumbidgee, as preferences flowed instead to Labor candidate Marisa Paterson.
Green has called the seat for Marisa Paterson.
The ACT Greens appear to be the surprise winners of the evening, with a 3.6 per cent swing towards the party, potentially winning them as many as three additional seats.
Green says the party is likely to win a seat in Yerrabi, and retain its seat in Murrumbidgee, despite the retirement of member Caroline Le Couteur.
Alongside returning Greens leader Shane Rattenbury, Green says the party could pick up a second seat in the inner city Kurrajong electorate, as well as a seat in Ginninderra.