Sunday, October 25, 2020
Science

Jacinda Ardern looks to secure second Labour term amid cannabis, euthanasia referendums

Jacinda Ardern looks to secure second Labour term amid cannabis, euthanasia referendums
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It’s the Colmar Brunton poll that is watched most closely, but all of them are delivering the same message – though the numbers have tightened between National and Labour, it’s Jacinda Ardern’s election to lose.

But there is a catch. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional representation (MMP) system, in which voters tick a box for a local electorate candidate and a separate box for which party they support.

Massey University politics professor Richard Shaw says that up to 30 per cent of Kiwis vote tactically – that is, they might for example vote for their local National candidate, but also give Labour a tick for the party list seats because they approve of Ardern.

There are 72 electorate and 48 list seats in the 120 member parliament – but if a party (such as NZ First, on current polling) doesn’t win an electorate seat, and doesn’t win over 5 per cent of the “list” vote, their share of the vote for the 48 list seats will be distributed among the parties that win over the 5 per cent – and bump up the other the major parties number of list seats.

At this stage, the hot top for the result looks like a Labour-Greens coalition government, NZ First to just miss out, and National and ACT to sit on the opposition benches



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